FAQ — Grey Swan Capital

Question 1

What makes a grey swan event different from a black swan?

Accepted Answer

A black swan, as defined by Nassim Taleb, is a rare, unpredictable event that comes as a complete surprise. A grey swan is different: it is a high-impact event that is actually foreseeable — even probable — but widely ignored or dismissed. Grey swan events carry 80%–100% probability of occurring within a defined timeframe. Our research focuses on identifying and tracking these overlooked certainties before they reshape markets, geopolitics, and society.

Question 2

What are the four pillars Grey Swan Capital tracks?

Accepted Answer

Our research is organized around four domains we believe are the primary drivers of systemic change: God (faith, religion, and moral frameworks shaping civilization), Energy (the transition, scarcity, and geopolitics of power), Technology (AI, biotech, and the acceleration of disruption), and Money (monetary systems, debt, inflation, and the future of capital). Each pillar intersects with the others — and that intersection is often where grey swan events emerge.

Question 3

How often do you publish research?

Accepted Answer

We publish regularly through our Substack, with new analysis, event tracking updates, and deep-dive essays. Founding Members receive priority access to research as it is released, along with exclusive commentary not available to the general public. You can preview our public research at the Research page.

Question 4

What is included in the Founding Membership?

Accepted Answer

Founding Members receive full access to all Grey Swan Capital research, early access to new publications, and Nostr Fundraising — a giving feature that lets you direct a portion of every transaction to a cause you choose. Founding Membership is $200/year with no price increases, ever.

Question 5

What is included in the Monthly and Annual memberships?

Accepted Answer

Monthly ($6/mo) and Annual ($50/yr) members get full access to all Grey Swan Capital research and publications. Half of every membership payment goes to a cause you choose when you join.

Question 6

Can I upgrade from Monthly or Annual to Founding Membership?

Accepted Answer

Yes. If you are on a Monthly ($6/mo) or Annual ($50/yr) plan and decide to upgrade to Founding, simply join as a Founding Member and reach out to us — we will cancel your existing membership and ensure the transition is seamless. We appreciate members who deepen their commitment to the mission.

Question 7

How does the half-to-cause giving work?

Accepted Answer

When you join, you name an organization or cause you want to support. Half of every membership payment goes to that cause. It does not need to be a 501(c)(3) — it can be a local group, a family in need, a church, or any cause you believe in. If you don't choose one, it goes to the Conway Human Development Center. Your choice is locked for one year and you can switch at renewal.

Question 8

Is my membership payment secure?

Accepted Answer

Yes. All payments are processed through Stripe, one of the world's most trusted payment platforms. Grey Swan Capital never stores your card details. Your transaction is encrypted and handled entirely by Stripe's secure infrastructure.

Frequently Asked Questions